Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#132
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 12.8% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 4.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 12.6
.500 or above 66.7% 77.7% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 69.9% 52.2%
Conference Champion 7.9% 10.1% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.4% 6.3%
First Four1.6% 2.3% 0.4%
First Round8.7% 11.5% 4.3%
Second Round2.2% 3.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.70.2 - 1.7
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.90.7 - 3.6
Quad 21.9 - 3.62.6 - 7.2
Quad 34.8 - 4.27.4 - 11.4
Quad 410.1 - 2.117.5 - 13.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 125   Penn L 72-73 61%    
  Nov 09, 2018 242   American W 75-68 83%    
  Nov 13, 2018 148   @ Georgia Southern W 75-73 45%    
  Nov 17, 2018 343   Southern W 79-62 96%    
  Nov 20, 2018 302   NC Central W 73-63 89%    
  Nov 23, 2018 36   Cincinnati L 63-71 23%    
  Nov 24, 2018 48   Baylor L 68-75 26%    
  Nov 28, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 81-66 94%    
  Dec 01, 2018 164   @ William & Mary W 80-77 49%    
  Dec 03, 2018 124   Vermont L 69-70 61%    
  Dec 07, 2018 176   James Madison W 74-71 70%    
  Dec 21, 2018 260   Navy W 72-64 84%    
  Dec 29, 2018 14   @ Kansas St. L 64-76 11%    
  Jan 03, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 74-75 36%    
  Jan 06, 2019 119   St. Bonaventure L 73-74 58%    
  Jan 09, 2019 88   Davidson L 69-72 51%    
  Jan 13, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island L 72-73 36%    
  Jan 16, 2019 154   @ Massachusetts W 74-72 47%    
  Jan 19, 2019 267   Fordham W 73-64 84%    
  Jan 23, 2019 107   @ Dayton L 72-73 36%    
  Jan 26, 2019 208   George Washington W 73-68 76%    
  Feb 02, 2019 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 75-76 41%    
  Feb 06, 2019 130   @ Richmond W 75-74 40%    
  Feb 10, 2019 166   La Salle W 76-73 69%    
  Feb 13, 2019 154   Massachusetts W 74-72 67%    
  Feb 17, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure L 73-74 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 182   Duquesne W 74-70 71%    
  Feb 27, 2019 130   Richmond W 75-74 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 71   @ Saint Louis L 66-71 27%    
  Mar 05, 2019 127   Virginia Commonwealth L 75-76 60%    
  Mar 09, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 73-68 57%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 13.5 9.5 - 8.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 3.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.5 1.0 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.8 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.5 0.3 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.3 0.1 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.2 3.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 8.6 10.4 11.7 12.0 11.3 9.5 7.3 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 89.5% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 68.2% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1
14-4 43.1% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 98.4% 49.0% 49.4% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
17-1 0.7% 91.0% 43.1% 47.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.2%
16-2 1.6% 69.0% 36.2% 32.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 51.4%
15-3 3.2% 49.5% 22.6% 26.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 34.8%
14-4 5.5% 29.1% 18.9% 10.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 12.6%
13-5 7.3% 14.6% 10.0% 4.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3 5.2%
12-6 9.5% 10.5% 9.2% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.5 1.4%
11-7 11.3% 7.8% 7.3% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.6%
10-8 12.0% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.3 0.0%
9-9 11.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.4
8-10 10.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.1
7-11 8.6% 1.4% 1.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.5
6-12 7.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9
5-13 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.6% 6.8% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 90.4 3.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 6.5 9.7 83.9